- Natalie Sherman
- new york business reporter
Nancy Pontius says she's not worried about the 'big picture economy'
Nancy Pontius is willing to share unpopular views. He doesn't think inflation is a big problem, and concerns about the economy won't affect his vote in the November election.
But that's not because the 36-year-old Democrat hasn't felt the same financial strain as tens of millions of Americans over the past few years.
“We definitely felt the increase in gas prices,” said the Pennsylvania mother of two, “but we also knew it was likely temporary. ”. Pontius voted for Joe Biden four years ago and plans to vote again, motivated by issues such as abortion. “I'm not worried about the economy as a whole,” she says.
Such confidence is welcome news for Biden. Biden's first term has been plagued by a once-in-a-generation 18% price hike, increasing economic dissatisfaction and eroding political support.
While America's rapid economic growth from the pandemic drew envy from abroad, opinion at home remained highly negative.
Now, there are signs of change, as gas prices are falling towards $3 a gallon nationwide and wages are catching up with price increases.
Economic sentiment, which some polling organizations describe as the “feel” people feel about the economy, has improved in business surveys in recent months.
According to the University of Michigan, which has surveyed consumers for decades, Democrats like Nancy are as positive about the economy now as they were in 2021, when prices were just starting to rise, and as positive as they were during the Trump era. It is said to be more positive than at any other time. Even Republican voters' views have brightened up a bit, according to their survey.
The White House hopes the change in mood will persist and support for the president will increase, especially in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, as the November election approaches.
However, that is not guaranteed.
The president's approval ratings are hovering near the lowest levels of his term, due to concerns about immigration, the president's age and the war in Gaza.
And despite the positive signs, overall economic sentiment has yet to recover from the hit it took during the pandemic, despite solid growth and historic consecutive unemployment rates below 4%.
Among Democrats, this issue has hit Biden particularly hard among those under 30, with just a quarter of them rating the economy as “excellent” or “good” in a recent Pew poll. 1, compared to 70% of those aged 65 and over.
Kim Schwartz, a 28-year-old medical technician from Pennsylvania, voted for Biden in 2020 but was disappointed in his economic policies.
“We're not seeing any progress in getting more money into the hands of middle-class and working-class Americans and able to keep it.” [inflation]”I'm going to vote, but I don't know if it's a write-in, a third party, or Biden,” she says.
Kim Schwartz says the construction site is a sign her area is growing “like crazy” – but the future still looks bleak.
Although her financial situation has improved since 2020, when she struggled to cover living expenses through school and part-time work, she still scouts multiple grocery stores each week for the best deals.
She postponed work on the car due to cost concerns. And her big financial and life goals, like buying a home, remain painfully out of reach, she feels.
“I'm a survivor,” she says. “Enough to sustain, but not enough to improve or progress.”
It is a truism in American politics that economic conditions determine elections. On top of that, growth was 2.5% last year and inflation is well down from last month's 2022 high of 3.1%, which should put Biden in safe territory.
But the standard weekly wage in the United States, adjusted for inflation, remained lower at the end of last year than it was when Biden took office.
Dissatisfaction like Kim's is repeatedly evident in political opinion polls, with majorities expressing serious concerns about the prices of food, consumer goods and housing, and describing the state of the economy as “poor” or “fair.” There is.
“It's like a race and you're trying to keep up,” says John Cook, 34, a restaurant manager from Pennsylvania.
John Cook says falling gas prices since last year don't make much sense as other costs continue to rise
The restaurant where he works is doing well, but profits have declined due to inflation and his salary has not increased.
“Car insurance has gone up, health insurance has gone up, rent has gone up. They say the economy is doing well. It's great to see numbers like this, but how do they help? Is not it?”
The Republican Party, which has a historical advantage among voters on economic issues, has made the economy one of its key lines of attack, blaming Biden for inflation and saying that Biden's “tax and spend” policies will lead to lower prices. He blames it for the rise.
Economists believe that the government's generous financial support for households during the pandemic has boosted consumer demand and eased household spending, spurring inflation and allowing businesses to set prices without major headwinds. states that.
However, the oil price shock from the Ukraine war and supply shortages caused by the pandemic also played a role.
Democrats have held their own in elections since 2020, including the 2022 midterm elections, by blaming broader forces for inflation and focusing on non-economic issues that move their base. However, independents and infrequent voters who rank the economy higher are more likely to vote in presidential elections.
“The core issues that the Biden coalition cares about remain issues like abortion, gun safety, voting rights and climate change,” said Daniel Deisseroth, executive director of the progressive polling firm Data for Progress. ” he says. “But in an election where the number of votes in some states is in the thousands, any problem for floating voters cannot be ignored.”
Strategists say Biden has relied for too long on big national numbers to defend his record, and the response felt emotionally out of place.
Celinda Lake, a pollster who worked on Biden's 2020 election campaign, said, “Just because you say the economy is great and the GDP is great, no one bought a dozen eggs with the GDP.Nobody cares. “I won't do it,” he says.
It seems that the criticism was correct. In recent weeks, Biden has adopted a strikingly populist tone, attacking businesses for price gouging and “shrinkflation” (charging more for less) and criticizing “extreme MAGA Republican” economic policies. is strengthening.
Don Cunningham, a longtime Democratic politician in Pennsylvania, said he expects the disconnect between economic sentiment and reality to narrow in the coming months.
Mr. Cunningham heads the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation, which is attracting investment to the former steel-producing region. The region was hit hard by deindustrialization in the 1980s, but is now making a comeback.
“I see the challenges. [for Biden] “How people feel personally, how the candidates feel, whether there's an age difference, whether young people are frustrated because they don't have people their age… Everything,” he says. All real questions concern how people vote and why they vote. ”
As Biden and Trump gear up for a rematch in 2020, there are signs that a significant number of Americans are disappointed in the choices they will face in November.
Nancy's impatience subsided. Four years ago, she proudly erected a Biden sign on her lawn, but she plans to keep a low profile in the 2024 campaign, concerned about alienating her neighbors.
“We might still take down the Biden and Harris signs,” she says. “But in 2020, I wanted to be a little louder than I am now.”
